The Rules Are Changing

The rules of Nuclear Peace Game are traditionally stated as follows:

1) I can nuke you, you can nuke me.
2) If I’ll nuke you, you’ll nuke me.
3) Therefore I will not nuke you and you will not nuke me.

This applies mainly to nuking cities, or using nuclear weapons as means of mass destruction.

Nuclear capacity can also be used in other means: they are an icon of destructive power and therefore power in general, and therefore give certain authority – and sence of security. I believe these are some of the reasons some of the countries have recently been working on nuclear projects.

Recently more countries have joined the nuclear club and even more are entering: Pakistan, India, North Korea, Brasilia and Iran. As for Iran, I think it’s quite evident that they will eventually gain a nuclear weapon – or means to produce them at will. However, will Iran abide the nuclear peace rules is another question.

In his recent article
SUICIDE SUPERPOWER: MARTYRDOM AS A WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION Craig S. Karpel describes how martyrdom is adored in the Iranian culture – or at least in the government. he summarices what he believes to be Iranian idea of the nuclear game:

We are prepared to nuke you first even though you are certain to respond by nuking us. You, in contrast, are not prepared to nuke us first because we are certain to respond by nuking you. Therefore we need only to possess the ability to nuke you in order to induce you to bend to our will.

That is to say, the rule number three would be changed. Effectively this would mean that because they are willing to risk their own destruction, we have to obey them.

Some think this this is a good reason to use military means to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear capacity. I don’t think that is a sustainable option. I believe it’s a question of time – If Iran wants, they will get the nuclear capacity sooner or later. The way to go would be to see that they don’t want to risk their own existance. For that military intervention is no option.

Anyway, the world is changing. There are many more things tangled to the issue, like economical warfare and emerging superpowers such as China and Russia. What will happen and when, remains to be seen. I for one, follow with interest.